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Showing posts from December, 2024

Trading Ranges (Mean Reversion)

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  Do not guess when a range is formed. Trade on confirmed ranges only. Range is confirmed after > 75% retracement What is a confirmed range? One where the previous trend has already clearly ended. On trends you allow Leg 1 to happen and you only jump in to trade Leg 2 and/or Leg 3 Ranges are similar. You DON'T guess the range low or high, but rather wait for them to form with confirmation using a few techniques. > 75% retracement of last trend leg Why 75%? Because trends shouldn't pull back 75%.  A typical trend leg will pull back no further than the 61.8% level (a common fib level).  Since the market cannot trend and range at the same time or on the same timeframe, an invalid trend is likely to form a range.  So, once you see a 75% retracement, you can begin to form a range. From here you can draw a range low, range high and create your levels/ zones.  But you DON'T enter trades yet. You need further confirmation to have a high probability range.  7...

Breakout Trading Tutorial

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  Interim high = Last high before BOS Exit when we start ranging OR BOS Trading a downtrend / uptrend You want to catch the 2nd or 3rd leg of the trend. NOT the first leg. This example: Uptrend, ranging, downtrend. The first trade where the ranging trend breaks into a downtrend. That first leg you shouldn't trade. Wait for second leg down or third, when a trend has confirmed. "The timeframe you identify the trend on is the same one you use for marking all levels." BOS (Break of Structure) = Trend continuation MSB (Market Structure Break) = Trend Shift (Trend Reversal) CHOCH = Change of Character Above must be confirmed by CANDLE CLOSE Line charts ignores wicks, only uses candle closes

Wyckoff Summary | Supply & Demand, Cause & Effect, Effort vs Result

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  Wyckoff Summary 1. Price is everything 2. Schematics alone are useless Supply & Demand (How fair price is determined) Cause & Effect (Accumulation & Distribution - Positioning) Effort vs Result (Aggression shown through Volume + Flows)

DUMP -25% ETH and -15% BTC

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 21.12.24 Eth dumped around 25% in a few days. ETH  BTC I think BTC looking great? Sweeped the lows and didn't change MS, still bullish. Apart from ETH which changed to bearish MS on the daily. BTC.D bearish MS but trying to recover? Or a LH? I don't wanna buy now since there is weakness in the charts. But BTC MS bullish, just swept the lows, MCB 1h MF looking primed for a long Or who am I kidding. Weekly, the highest TF in those pics is clearly bearish. Weekly bear div. But D, 4h and 1h looking bouncy! Emotions teared in two, will not trade this. Going for a morning walk at 12.41, yea I slept for long today... Had 4 eggs and some honey for breakfast. Gonna get hungry for real soon I guess. I have chicken thighs and rice ready in the fridge. Good thing I didn't long the 1h MF. Price dumped, would've been a shit entry. -2% dump. Weekly bearish dot triumphed this 1h MF long. But I guess I wanted to front run, to see lower TFs have a bounce and maybe even nullifying the We...

Trade #2 | LOSS -1%

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 CF said long 1h deep green dot, hidden bull div. Did we just break out of this accumulation range and retesting the top of the range? 4h. Looks okey. Can be scary when momentum crossing 0 line. Or we can form a tight trigger wave which could be bullish... Daily looks kinda bad 12h looks even worse 10 min MF looks great! Longing, risking 1% of acc. Feeling stressed Depressed Bit excited Update CF's trades have been complete shit lately. Feels like his win rate is less than 50%. Been following him for 8(?) years and I'm still an unsuccessful trader. Feelsbadman. -1% stopped. 4h 0 line cross was deadly 12h still looks like we're coming down That 10 min MF was a complete disaster Now I'm defeated and discouraged to keep trading more with this strategy. It's shit. Fuck CF. Gonna keep working on TRW now.

Trade #1 | LOSS -1%

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  1h green dot, previous dots have been PUMPING 4h not looking great but anchored above +60, could come down though, so this could be a top. Or we blast through up. CONCERNING 1 min MF coming up Longing with 1% SL, risking about 1% of acc Feels FOMO and gambly... CF also longing, he makes me FOMO Unsure about where to take profits if this starts running. We will see. Ignore the R:R Few hours later, stopped. -1%

Day 12 Bootcamp

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  The 4 market phases Real chart example The 4 phases doesn't have to be in a symmetrical order Is this good?

The Fractal Nature of Markets

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  D 4h 5 min The difference is simply how long they will take to play out (example: Daily Trend will last much longer than a M5 trend). Charts can be zoomed in to fractals, similar to how a tree grows